☀️《Three-Dimensional Integrated Trading System | BTC Market Morning Briefing》 BTC is currently priced around 68,900. It plummeted to 67,568 late Friday night, breaking through the 200-week moving average. It's currently barely holding above the moving average, and market sentiment has fallen into extreme fear, with an index of 20. 1. Bullish and Bearish Volume Looking at the four-hour chart, the selling pressure has clearly weakened since Friday night. The 68,500 area has been repeatedly bought back. The latest four-hour trading volume has dropped to just over 100 coins, indicating that the selling pressure has largely subsided. However, the bulls haven't dared to launch a strong attack either, with the price rebounding to 70,200 before being pushed back down. Therefore, the current situation is a stalemate between the bears and bulls, with neither side gaining the upper hand near the 200-week moving average. 2. On-Chain Data The funding aspect is the strongest resistance in this round. ETFs have seen net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, accumulating over 2 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for 90% of the net outflows. Fidelity's small inflows simply cannot absorb it. The total market capitalization of stablecoins has shrunk by nearly two percent in seven days, indicating a lack of new money entering the market, naturally hindering any potential rebound. There is also internal division among whales. Older whales bought 3,000 coins around 78,000, but mid-sized whales are slowing down, and super whales are still selling. Long-term holders significantly reduced their holdings in the third quarter. Some are buying, but not aggressively enough. 3. Structural Pattern The 200-week moving average at 68,000 is a key level. Historically, it has never been effectively broken. The brief dip in 2022 was recovered within three months. Friday's low of 67,568 was a test of the lows before rebounding. Whether this week's closing price can hold above 68,000 is the first key factor. The 70,200 level is short-term resistance, and 71,500 is medium-term resistance. A true recovery requires a move above 77,000. If the 68K level is breached, the next resistance is 65K, followed by 62K to 63K, which represents a deep mid-cycle resistance level and a dense accumulation zone for the first half of 2024. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals The root cause is worsening, not improving. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 5.1%, the US dollar index broke 103, reaching a new high since May 2025, and the probability of a December rate hike rose from 90% to 95%. San Francisco Fed President Daly stated last night that inflation continues to worsen, and further rate hikes are likely necessary. She is usually a moderate member of the Fed, and her statement indicates a shift towards a hawkish stance within the Fed. Geopolitical tensions are also escalating. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed that two oil tankers exploded after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked the Saudi East-West oil pipeline and Riyadh airport. If oil prices surge back to around $96, inflationary and interest rate pressures will be further transmitted. BTC Short-to-Medium-Term Market Analysis: The short-term trend is one of resistance-driven sideways movement, not a bottom. The 200-week moving average on the 68K chart is a point of contention. If it holds, the price will likely fluctuate between $68,000 and $71,500; if it fails to hold, it will head straight for $65K. To determine if a price level is a true bottom, consider four conditions simultaneously: extreme fear in sentiment, weakening selling pressure with decreasing volume, a long lower shadow on the candlestick, and capital inflows stopping losses. Currently, only the first and a half conditions are met, so this is not a bottom, just a slower decline. In terms of trading strategy, avoid chasing short positions and bottom-fishing. A rebound to around $71,500 would be a relatively comfortable entry point for shorting, with a stop-loss at $72,600. If the price drops to 65K and shows a long lower shadow with decreasing volume, a small long position can be considered, with a stop loss at 63,500. 62K to 63K is the second long-term entry point; total position size should be kept below 15%. The key events this week are twofold: whether the weekly close holds above 68,000, and whether the Hormuz 550 will actually seal the price. Without addressing the root cause, all rebounds are merely structural. Current Conclusion: BTC is currently consolidating around 68K, which is a continuation pattern in the downtrend, not a bottom. In the short term, there's a 40% chance of sideways movement near the 200-week moving average (68,000). A subsequent rebound to 71,500-72,000 would essentially complete the rebound. However, in the medium term, the probability of reaching 62,000-63,000 is higher (40%), higher than the 35% probability of a bottom. Bitcoin BTC Three-Dimensional Trading Analysis Natural Trading Theory Volume Refinement