The Fed's "hawkish chorus" has grown again. A December rate hike is a done deal! San Francisco Fed President Daly just stated: "Inflation continues to worsen, and further rate hikes are 'very likely necessary.'" Her reasoning was extremely clear: Core CPI has risen about 0.3% month-over-month for three consecutive months, while the Fed's 2% inflation target corresponds to 0.2% or lower. Three consecutive months near the target isn't just noise; it's a trend. Her biggest concern is inflation in the services sector, excluding housing. These prices are extremely sticky; once they rise, they're difficult to bring down. Business input costs are rising, and producers are already considering passing those costs on to consumers. What is the market pricing now? A 25 basis point rate hike on December 8-9, followed by another 25 basis point hike on January 26-27. Two meetings, two rate hikes—this may not be fully priced in. Daly added: "We will focus on consumer spending in the next one to three months." Current consumption remains resilient, but some regions are already showing signs of a potential loss of consumer momentum. Her point is: if consumption falters, interest rate hikes will be the final straw that breaks the camel's back; if consumption remains strong, interest rate hikes will continue. In either case, for US stocks and Bitcoin, the denominator (interest rates) is pushing upwards. Interest rate cuts? Don't expect them for the next six months or so. Even the most dovish voices within the Federal Reserve are now discussing "how many more hikes." December 8th, the first cut. January, the second cut. No respite in between. What about March? We'll see then.