Is there a high probability of a US government shutdown in mid-December? From a personal perspective, the probability is low, but the probability of a shutdown around February 2027 is quite high. This is because the total spending amount cannot be agreed upon (Republicans want a significant increase in defense spending and a reduction in non-defense spending; Democrats demand simultaneous growth in defense and non-defense spending and worry that the Trump administration will use "cash cuts" or other methods to circumvent congressional appropriations). Therefore, Congress passed a temporary appropriations agreement (CR) in September, lasting until December 11th. Normally, if a new appropriations agreement is not reached by December 11th, the US government will shut down. However, Republicans still hold a majority in Congress in December, and the new Congress elected this year will not be in effect until early January 2027. Therefore, Democrats are more inclined to delay negotiations on the annual budget bill until after the new Congress takes office in 2027. Previously, a key Democratic figure, Senator Patty Murray, Vice Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee (expected to become chair in the new Congress), explicitly stated that she wanted a short-term stopgap until early next year. Democrats want a shorter debt ceiling ceiling (CR) to leave formal negotiations to the new Congress with its majority; Republicans, on the other hand, may want a longer extension. If the new CR passes in December, it will be a compromise between the two sides. The most likely length is a "short-term" extension, probably until mid-to-late January or February 2027, though the exact length is uncertain. However, another problem will arise then: the debt ceiling expiration. The latest forecasts from several investment banks, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, and the National Taxpayers Union (NTU) unanimously predict that the ceiling will be reached in mid-to-late February 2027. After reaching the ceiling, the Treasury will activate "extraordinary measures" and draw on the cash balance of the Treasury General Account (TGA), which can usually sustain the debt for several more months. Although some Republican lawmakers hope to push for an increase in the debt ceiling before the new Congress takes office in early 2027, the probability is not very high. This is because the lame-duck legislative session only lasts a few weeks, and the CR expiration on December 11th must be addressed first. Time is tight, and the task is heavy; the new CR is arguably more urgent. This post is sponsored by @bitget_zh, "Bitget US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading."