I woke up and saw... it's really deep... Turns out, Target Bro cut his losses. Let's look at the on-chain data first, how much did short-term traders cut their losses? Yesterday's data came out, and the real-time data estimate was correct: on-chain short-term traders cut losses of 800 million, and around 900 million across the entire network... Long-term traders didn't move much... (Figure 1) Short-term traders mainly cut their losses after the price broke below their psychological low of 73k-75k. But this isn't over yet... because yesterday's 800 million only lasted until UTC 0:00, which is 8:00 Beijing time. There was a second wave after 8:00 (the final drop to 68k). ----------- Look at today's real-time data (Figure 2) From 8:00 Beijing time to now, short-term traders have sold off another 700 million (concentrated between 12:00 and 17:00 Beijing time). This means that during the period from the drop below 70,000, the price plunged to 68k, until the subsequent small rebound... If we consider this entire period as a whole, it's equivalent to short-term traders selling off 1.5 billion in a single market move... This can be considered a level of panic selling that essentially cleared out short-term traders... Note that today's real-time SOPR in the second chart has dropped to 0.9619. Looking at the past period, starting from around 0.96 has been considered the opening of a medium-term buying opportunity... --------------- See Figure 3. Figure 3 uses SOPR 0.966 as the threshold for buying on dips... The area circled in green... A reminder: historically, after reaching this threshold range, the price may continue to fall for a period after further selling at a loss, or it may reverse directly within this range. Therefore, this range should only be considered the opening of a medium-term left-side buying window at the spot level... not a sign of a buy-on-dips strategy. Don't use maximum leverage. Historically, in two-thirds of cases where short-term traders experience such extreme negative peaks of selling at a loss (realized losses), the price stabilizes within a week. However, in the larger cycle, with about a quarter of the time remaining, there's still a potential decline in the next 1-1.5 months. Examples include the -42% drop in October 2018, the -27% drop in April 2022, and the -20% drop after the October 11th attacks in 2025. ----------- Another point of resonance is... the current pullback to around 67.5k also coincides with the 200-week moving average... (Figure 4) This is also a crucial cost level for this round of consolidation between 58k and 60k... However, unlike the early bull market of 2022-2023, the previous bear market completely bottomed out below the 200-week moving average. The first rebound was suppressed by the 200-week moving average, and only after the second breakout did it pull back to the 200-week moving average. This wave hasn't completely broken below the 200-week moving average. See Figure 4 for the specific differences.