degentrading|11月 13, 2026 05:56
Pre Market Thoughts - 13 Nov 26
The sun has set - Jenson is out from NVDA. As this news echoed across globe - the reaction was swift. NVDA quickly puked from -7% to -11% on the day before clawing back losses. Neoclouds were directly impacted - NBIS was down 18% from earnings stretched that to being almost down 25%..
Let's not underestimate the impact of Jenson to NVDA. On a fundamental level, this is exceptionally terrible for semis. Jenson was the play master between locking up chip supply from TSMC,, memory supply from the korean giants and then downstream locking customers in. When hyperscalers started to try to design a chip, he then created neoclouds - an entire different customer base.
For any new players wanting to get and eat NVDA's part of the pie, they had to go to TSMC - but TSMC had no capacity because NVDA would lock up their supply! The alternative option? There is no alternative unless they started their own fabs.
Suffice to say. Jenson has been the best in the game thus far.
Without Jenson, a huge cloud of uncertainty has descended onto the entire AI/semis trade.
Personally, if i had to give an analogy - this would be if instead of FTX collapsing in 2022, it was Binance that collapsed.
At this point from a trading perspective - i think if you are unsure - it is better to be flat. For me, the number one signal that i am watching for is - if despite this tremendously bearish news, prices move towards the upside. That would indicate demand behind the scenes, despite this huge amount of selling...and terrible fundamental backdrop.
On crypto, BTC has cracked below the 73k support to 68k. The 66/67k support now looms near. Alts have been trading sluggishly in conjunction with BTC. Thus far, crypto has been equity beta with the downside but minus the upside. Would continue to lean cautious
Good luck!
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