[Barclays: US-Iran Conflict Unlikely to End in the Short Term; "No War, No Peace" Stalemate May Continue Until Trump's Term Ends] BlockBeats reported on November 13th that Barclays stated in its latest report that the probability of the US-Iran conflict ending within the next year is less than 50%, with "protracted conflict" becoming the baseline scenario. Analyst Michael McLean believes that both the US and Iran believe time is on their side, and the possibility of reaching a substantial agreement in the short term is extremely low. The US may maintain a "no war, no peace" stalemate with Iran, and may even need to prepare for the conflict to continue until the end of Trump's term. Barclays summarizes the situation facing the US into three paths: further escalation, maintaining the status quo in the long term, and withdrawal. Of these, protracted conflict is the most likely, meaning both sides continue intermittent reciprocal strikes, nuclear negotiations are unlikely to make progress, and the US continues to control the Strait of Hormuz. The report believes that Middle Eastern oil exports have now recovered to about 85% of pre-war levels, and the global economy's resilience to oil price shocks has increased, reducing the urgency for all parties to end the conflict as soon as possible. Historical data also shows that the longer a war lasts, the lower the probability of a short-term end. Barclays, citing data from 95 interstate wars between 1823 and 2003, states that wars lasting 6 to 12 months have approximately a 57% probability of ending within a year; for wars that have lasted eight months, the average remaining duration is 1.8 years. In contrast, further escalation of US military action faces risks such as Iranian retaliation and opposition from Gulf states, while a unilateral withdrawal could lead to the US losing control of the Strait of Hormuz and triggering a crisis of regional influence and international credibility. Barclays believes that both escalation and withdrawal present significant obstacles, making maintaining the status quo a more likely option. [Original Link]