小龙先生
小龙先生|11月 13, 2026 02:09
Is Nvidia stock still worth holding long-term? Is it a good time to buy now? My conclusion is: Now is not the time to buy the dip. The logic for buying Nvidia has shifted from buying an AI monopolist to betting on whether the board can find the next Jensen Huang. 1. The fundamentals haven't deteriorated, but the pricing power has. Q3 revenue reached $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, and Blackwell sold out. Goldman Sachs maintained a $300 target price before resigning. However, the fundamental problem isn't in the financial statements. Jensen Huang only held 3.56% of the shares, with no dual-class share structure or super voting rights. He held the company for 33 years based on the belief that "Jensen Huang = Nvidia." Now, Huang is gone, and that belief has crumbled. A shareholder class-action lawsuit has been initiated, and the board has hired external legal counsel to investigate. A company whose pricing power was based on the "godfather of AI chips" has had its pricing power reassessed as the godfather has left. 2. Analysts are voting with their feet on Nvidia. Of the 62 analysts on Wall Street, 45 gave a "strong buy" rating. On the surface, the outlook remains optimistic. But actions speak louder than ratings. Morgan Stanley removed Nvidia from its "top picks" list, citing a more than 25% drop in share price, triggering stop-loss orders. Robert W. Baird cut his target price from $500 to $200 and downgraded his rating to "hold." The target price didn't collapse, but the reason for the price reduction was entirely focused on "Huang Renxun himself," not the business. They bought Huang Renxun's Nvidia, not Nvidia in the US. 3. The current price is a bet on the outcome of the new CEO selection. After the resignation announcement, the stock fell about 10% pre-market and plummeted about 14% at the open, with its market capitalization falling below $4 trillion. The CFO temporarily took over, and the board launched a global selection process. The earnings report on November 17th is the first critical juncture. If the earnings report is disastrous, it might temporarily stabilize sentiment; if the guidance is vague, the sell-off will intensify. Even if the financial reports are good, it only proves that the company is still making money; it doesn't prove that the new CEO can inherit the customer relationships and technological roadmap left by Jensen Huang. 4. Can I still hold it long-term? My opinion is straightforward: Don't hold it! Since Jensen Huang was removed from all positions by the board, Nvidia is no longer Jensen Huang's Nvidia. A company whose premium was propped up by its "godfather" has lost its core player, and its foundation has crumbled. It will likely gradually decline. The more crucial variable lies with China. The more the US restricts China from buying Nvidia's high-end chips, the more it forces domestic chipmakers like Huawei Ascend and ecosystems like DeepSeek to become rising stars. Once China takes its first steps in independent research and development, the speed of its catch-up will only accelerate. Once China no longer needs Nvidia's chips, Nvidia's chips will no longer be highly sought after, becoming a product of oversupply. Ultimately, no matter how high the technological barriers are for AI chips, they can't withstand the combined efforts of the entire Chinese industry chain. In the future, AI chips will be driven down to rock-bottom prices by China. At that point, what will Nvidia use to maintain its exorbitant valuation? Nvidia's business is still there, but Huang Renxun's Nvidia is completely finished. For those considering buying, wait for the financial reports and selection results; for those looking to hold long-term, I sincerely advise against it. Cash is safer than faith. Moreover, domestic substitution is accelerating across the border. ----Mr. Xiaolong
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