小龙先生|Nov 12, 2026 13:44
《Three-Dimensional Trading System | BTC Evening Market Analysis (3/3): Structural Pattern and Core Judgment》
73,000 is a critical level; a break below this level would target 71,100. The 68K-70K range is the most likely bottoming price for this downward correction, but it doesn't necessarily represent the ultimate bottom.
BTC is stuck below the 21-week moving average at 73,078, having already broken through this key support level.
Above, 75,500 is the 50-week moving average, also the cost line for short-term holders, which has already been broken. Below, 71,100 is the large-cycle Fibonacci retracement level (0.5), and further down, 68,000 is the 200-week moving average, a long-term deep value zone.
International Situation: Higher-than-expected CPI, a stronger dollar, and a tech stock rebound couldn't save BTC. The US dollar index is at 103.04, and Fed Governor Waller released a hawkish signal that a 50 basis point rate hike is possible.
The Nasdaq rebounded nearly 3% on Monday, but BTC is now following the declines but not the rises. Brent crude oil rose to $93, indicating that inflationary pressures have not eased.
Key Analysis:
ETFs saw outflows of $1.44 billion over five consecutive days, indicating whales are transferring coins to exchanges, and short-term holders are capitulating.
After breaking below 73,000, the next target is around 71,100, and then 68,000 is a truly worthwhile long-term investment level.
The overall environment is deteriorating. Jensen Huang is likely to fall from grace, and Nvidia's stock is likely to continue its downward trend, further exacerbating the current difficulties for the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
For short- to medium-term traders, don't rush to buy the dip. The two months of 2026 plus 2027 are destined to be an extremely complex and brutal period.
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