Today's hot topic is undoubtedly a high-probability event that everyone is paying attention to, which I'll cover in one article. At 6 AM, MSCI officially removed MSTR from its index constituents. One reason is that the new regulations implemented on October 15th classify MSTR as a fund, not a company, in the screening of non-operating companies. Two reasons for index removal: Passive selling on the stock side (1.5-2.8 billion, some already pre-empted) + active fund sentiment-driven selling. It doesn't directly sell shares, but it will reduce Saylor's ability to buy shares through its share issuance. Three key boundaries: • The stock continues to trade on Nasdaq, opening and closing as usual. • The company does not sell any shares. • Passive funds are selling their own MSTR shares, not the shares listed on Strategy's balance sheet. IV. Selling Pressure First Wave (Anticipated Pre-emptive Action, August-October) • MSCI's August consultation report already simulated the data from May, and Strategy was on the "proposed removal" list. • The company itself disclosed in its Q3 financial report that it "expects to be removed in November." • Quantitative/arbitrage funds and active funds began reducing their positions from that point onwards. Second Wave (After Announcement to Before Effective Date) • The list was finalized on November 11th → it took effect on November 30th, with a 19-trading-day window in between. • Active funds continued to adjust, while most passive funds waited until the end of the trading day, but some sample replication funds unwound their positions in advance. • Historical pattern: MSCI adjustments often react to stock price changes between the announcement and the effective date, and the stock price may not necessarily fall sharply on the effective date because passive funds use MOCs to absorb orders, and there are counterparties to take over. The impact was 2.8 billion in passive selling, but MSTR's passive shareholding ratio of only 3.1% and the already occurred 17% drawdown together indicate that the most crowded selling window has most likely passed. The fluctuations before the end of the month will be more of a mechanical execution of the remaining passive positions, rather than a new "informed sell-off".