Yuyue
Yuyue|Nov 11, 2026 17:01
Many semiconductor stocks have already halved from their peaks, yet some people are still unwilling to face the reality that the sector is already declining. The original text clearly states, "There might be a short-term rebound before Christmas, but the medium-term probability is that it will continue to fall," aiming to "put a period to the current downtrend." My medium-term bearish view means I'm not optimistic about the market outlook a few months from now (Q1 of next year), but this doesn't mean I'm certain I'll be accurate about what will happen a few months from now, nor does it mean I'm unwilling to participate in this rebound. Is Nvidia a good company? The answer is yes, it is a good company, but that doesn't mean it will outperform strong stocks in this rebound. The long term is a long-term matter, and I believe most people won't hold their positions for more than three months. To give another example, in the long run, electricity will always be a bottleneck, but the profit margins of these companies and industries don't support narrative-driven frenzy. Only advanced productivity can drive sentiment and market-dream ratios. Therefore, the most easily hyped themes will ultimately revolve around AI-related topics. I'm not an industry expert; I'm just a trader. Price movements are the result of capital flows, and long-term fundamentals don't significantly impact short-term prices due to factors like sentiment and sector rotation. In fact, my subscribers saw that I explicitly called for long positions in SPY and AMD last week. I've seen some people questioning my calls for shorting yesterday and going long tomorrow, citing my statement that "the cycle is in a downtrend." My friend, if you can't even read carefully and just want to see what you want to see, what can I say? If you doubt whether I truly shared my analysis of SPY and AMD with my subscribers, I can transfer your subscription fee to you; you can subscribe and read it yourself. I'll give you a free month's subscription. Of course, there's no need to communicate with those who are unwilling to read and understand.
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