江卓尔_莱比特矿池|11月 11, 2026 14:35
The bull market is undoubtedly still ongoing. Numerous on-chain and long-term indicators unequivocally point to the end of the bear market. The low of 57758 in July was the lowest point of this bear market.
The only question now is, where will this decline ultimately stop?
Will it be the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 72.5k, or the 61.8% level of 69-70k?
After my Binance theft, I bought DeFi altcoins at 76.6k.
From a long-term trading perspective, this is fine. Holding for three years, the key is getting on board at the beginning of the bull market, and the crucial point is being roughly correct. Therefore, a certain degree of pullback is tolerable.
However, I shouldn't have simultaneously gone all-in on a 100% long position in BTC.
For this kind of short-term trade, I should have had more patience, waiting for the theft incident to unfold further. At least after the rebound to 80.5k on November 5th, I should have taken profits when it consolidated at a high level and showed signs of a slow decline.
However, I was influenced by the triumphant feeling of successfully buying altcoins at the initial low point of the bull market, and began expecting long-term returns of ten to twenty times. I didn't handle my short-term BTC trades calmly, mixing long-term and short-term trades together—a huge mistake.
This mistake led to a drop to 72.7k, hitting my 5% stop-loss. Fearing a further drop to 70.5k, I was forced to open a short position at 73k (essentially a stop-loss).
During my eight-game winning streak in short-term trades in September and October, I said that statistically, I was bound to make a mistake, and now that mistake has occurred.
Making mistakes isn't terrible; what's terrible is not knowing where you went wrong. I will reduce this mixing of long and short-term, long and short trades in the future; this kind of trading demands too much from the right mindset.
I'll exit the market and wait for this trend to complete before deciding how to proceed.
If it drops further to 70.5k, I'll close my short position at 73k. :)
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