Current data regarding the medium-term cycle assessment: 1. Bad news triggers a sharp drop, followed by a weak rebound. The overall issue is insufficient demand. Coinbase continues to trade at a negative premium, and ETFs experience continuous outflows. This negative premium has lasted for 26 days, nearly 10 percentage points. (Figure 1) Before demand returns, the final retracement level is highly uncertain and difficult to predict. There's only one viable strategy: wait for a massive sell-off, a panic sell-off – see the realized profits/losses of short-term and long-term traders (Figure 2). 2. On-chain short-term traders are continuously selling at a loss daily, while long-term traders occasionally sell. Let's compare Figure 2, which shows the situation at the beginning of the bear-to-bull transition in 2022-2023 and the beginning of this bear-to-bull transition in 2026. Blue box: Bear market bottom, large-scale sell-off by short-term traders... surrendering their holdings. Yellow box: The first wave of the bull market saw a large number of short-term traders taking profits, with several peaks in profit-taking occurring at temporary highs during the rebound. (Green box: After the first wave of the bull market, during the first monthly-level pullback, some short-term traders who chased the rally cut their losses, ending the rally with a wave of short-term traders cutting their losses... (Red arrow)) Currently, in this wave, there hasn't been a large-scale sell-off by short-term traders... The current price hasn't fallen beyond the range many short-term traders expected... Currently, on Twitter, I see various bullish opinions, some predicting a pullback to 75k, some to 73k... Around 74k, many short-term bulls are likely still in the "normal pullback, we can hold on" or "buying the dip and waiting for the subsequent rally" phase... Therefore, although some short-term traders have been cutting their losses these past few days, we haven't reached a truly panicked point yet... ----------- So, from a blockchain perspective, if you really want a left-side entry opportunity, you have to wait for this wave of panic selling pressure to appear. (By then, we should see a peak in long position liquidations on exchanges and a peak in losses for on-chain short-term traders.) The risks on the left side are: 1. The real panic might not materialize; the bulls might hold out... then some news will emerge, and funds will immediately drive the price up. 2. The macro environment continues to deteriorate, returning to bear market territory. (Subsequent signs include: rebounds being consistently suppressed by the average cost line of short-term traders, and short-term traders taking profits as soon as a rebound occurs, resulting in the price being suppressed after profit-taking. The fact that the price reaches a temporary rebound high right after short-term traders take profits is a characteristic of bear markets.) ---------------- So, do you want to patiently wait for the right side? If you don't want to guess the bottom, you can continue to try the right-side approach, patiently waiting for several indicators to enter the market before entering. The key points are: On-chain: The on-chain bull/bear model shows a return to above 4 points (it has now dropped to 2 points for 2 days) (Figure 3) Funding: Coinbase premium turns positive, ETFs start sustained buying, and the premium begins a long-term positive cycle (Figure 1 model) Price: It has returned above the medium-term moving average and continues to rise above the on-chain short-term customer cost line (currently 75.6k) The risk on the right side is the need for confirmation, making it difficult to buy at the absolute lowest point. The risk-reward ratio cannot be optimized. There is a risk of repeated wear and tear during the consolidation phase. --------------- Neither of these two approaches is absolutely correct or wrong. It depends on your mindset. The left side tests position management and holding positions more. The right side tests the mindset for execution more. When entering on the left side, don't consider going all in with high leverage. If you're entering a trade on the right side, don't let the repeated entries and exits cause your mindset to change and your trading to become distorted—turning you into someone who's afraid to enter or someone who stubbornly holds on to their position.