Cooling Fever? Baird Halves Nvidia's Target Price, Wall Street Begins to Monitor AI Slowdown Risks in 2027! Today, Baird downgraded Nvidia's rating from Outperform to Neutral, slashing its target price by 60% from $500 to $200 – a historically rare move! First, let's talk about who Baird is. Does its word carry weight? • Founded in 1919, Baird is a long-established American investment bank. While not as famous as Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley, it has always been known for its solid research in semiconductors, hard technology, and industrial manufacturing. • Tristan Gerra, the analyst responsible for Nvidia, is a veteran in the semiconductor industry. He doesn't follow market trends and focuses more on the actual order situation in the supply chain and channel inventory data. He consistently ranks in the top 4% on third-party rankings like TipRanks. It's hard to imagine that a generally bullish institution suddenly downgrading its rating. The market won't take it as a typical bearish statement; it's more like a potential warning that cloud vendors' capital expenditure may be peaking! Let's look at their logic. Note that this isn't about B300 sales being sluggish now, but rather focusing on 2027: 1️⃣ Supply-side expectation gap. Supply chain constraints may lead to widespread delays in data center deliveries in 2027. 2️⃣ Uncertainty on the demand side. The growth rate of AI capital expenditure by cloud giants is expected to slow to 40% or even lower in 2027, and there are signs of 10%-30% pre-cutting in the distribution channels. Order cancellations may come sooner than expected. 3️⃣ Management uncertainty. Baird explicitly points out that Jensen Huang's tenure and leadership style after 2027 may become an implicit risk to valuation. Personally, I think that the media and investment banks currently bearish on Nvidia are most likely just looking to acquire shares at a lower price. First and foremost, it's undeniable that Nvidia's fundamentals remain strong. However, market expectations have been inflated, and if growth slows, coupled with management uncertainty, the pain of valuation inflation will continue to be a test in the short term. Hopefully, this inflation will subside, and Nvidia will fall below $150, allowing us to get on board! Of course, one institution's opinion doesn't guarantee accuracy. Don't blindly follow the crowd or try to buy the dip. This is for reference only. DYOR