The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Nov 11, 2026 10:16
Our direct experience with Nvidia, never shared before: 22 months ago, we published the below analysis raising concerns that Nvidia's AI chips were potentially being routed to China through Singapore. Less than 24 hours later, Nvidia's Head of PR contacted us, directly addressing our analysis. Their message to us is included below. At the time, in the previous 3 quarters, $17.4 billion of Nvidia's revenue came from Singapore versus $11.6 billion from China. Furthermore, at the time, the US had ~5,375 data centers, China had 448, and Singapore had just 99. The numbers just did not add up. You can read our full analysis below. Nvidia's PR team sent us the following message: "The revenue associated with Singapore does not indicate diversion to China. Our public filings report 'bill to' not 'ship to' locations of our customers. Many of our customers have business entities in Singapore and use those entities for products destined for the US and the West. We insist that our partners comply with all applicable laws, and if we receive any information to the contrary, act accordingly. Our last 10-Q noted: 'most shipments associated with Singapore revenue were to locations other than Singapore and shipments to Singapore were insignificant.'" Fast forward to today. According to new reports, Nvidia, NVDA, CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with a suspected Chinese spy helped facilitate at least $7.5 billion in Nvidia chip shipments to Chinese companies through a network spanning China and Singapore. The reported shipments date back to 2023 and involved ~240,000 advanced Nvidia AI chips. These allegations remain under investigation, and it is not yet established whether the shipments were connected to the revenue discrepancies we highlighted 22 months ago. Nvidia maintains that it has no reason to believe US national security or company secrets were compromised. But the overlap between these new allegations and the questions we raised in January 2025, along with Nvidia's response to us at the time, is noteworthy. We stand by our view that Jensen Huang is likely to remain CEO of Nvidia and will continue to be an integral figure in the AI Revolution. We expect more on this soon.
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