The US Treasury's QRA interpretation and liquidity projections for the next three months, released last week, are highly indicative of the liquidity trend over the next three months. Let's discuss: 1. Quarterly Refinancing Details 1) Net market borrowing by the private sector in the fourth quarter was revised down from $628 billion to $618 billion, a nominal decrease of $10 billion, but implying an increase of $15 billion in net short-term debt financing to $332 billion; 2) Net issuance of coupon securities remained at $361 billion, while the repurchase assumption was raised from $50 billion to $75 billion. After deducting this, net coupon financing decreased by $25 billion, with the difference being made up by short-term debt. The main reason for the downward revision was that cash at the beginning of the quarter was $34 billion more than originally expected; after deducting this, the actual financing demand was actually higher. 3) The size of each auction of medium- and long-term Treasury bonds remained unchanged: $69 billion for 2-year bonds, $58 billion for 3-year bonds, $70 billion for 5-year bonds, and $44 billion for 7-year bonds. The existing new and reissue arrangements for 10-year/20-year/30-year bonds continued. There is no pressure for new issuance in the next three months, while long-term guidance has eased slightly. The TBAC minutes mentioned potential issuance in the second half of fiscal year 2027, concentrated in the 2-10 year maturity range. This means that the issuance scale of long-term bonds in the first half of 2027 will either remain unchanged or may even decrease slightly. For long-term bonds, stable auction volume combined with repurchase agreements will temporarily alleviate duration supply pressure, potentially supporting the term premium. However, the medium- to long-term outlook still depends on growth and inflation expectations. 2. TGA Path: The quarterly refinancing statement outlines a peak TGA within two months and a quarter-end anchor: TGA may reach 1.025 trillion yuan (±50 billion yuan) in late November and late January 2027, while the target of 850 billion yuan will remain unchanged at the end of December. Based on the reserve requirement of 2.963 trillion yuan and TGA of 0.936 trillion yuan on November 4 (totaling approximately 3.899 trillion yuan), with overnight reverse repurchase agreements having bottomed out, changes in TGA will directly lead to increases or decreases in bank reserves. Let's calculate the possible paths: 1) The peak TGA cash balance in late November corresponds to approximately 2.87 trillion in reserves; 2) By the end of December, TGA will drop to 850 billion, and reserves will rebound to approximately 3.05 trillion (basically the high point of late September); 3) In late January, it will surge again to 1.025 trillion, and reserves will fall back to approximately 2.87 trillion. As of November 9th, TGA has already dropped to 922.6 billion, and there is still approximately 100 billion in cash rebuilding pressure before the end of the month, corresponding to reserve withdrawal; If 175 billion is released from the peak in December, there is clear room for improvement. January will see cash replenishment before seasonal expenditures, and the portion released at the end of the year will be withdrawn. Regarding the settlement schedule, the receipt of interest-bearing bonds and taxes on November 16th and 30th, and in mid-to-late December, may cause periodic fluctuations. Net borrowing rose to $800 billion in the first quarter, mainly due to a reversal in cash management (using existing reserves in the fourth quarter and needing to replenish them in the first quarter), rather than simply an expansion of the deficit. 3. For assets like Bitcoin, which are closely related to liquidity, we previously analyzed the past relationship between Bitcoin and reserve requirements here: https://(x.com)/i/grok/share/9e2f1e5b82df4dc7a2a366467aa007ea. Its correlation with US stocks is less. This is essentially a funding timeline: Be aware of renewed tightening of cash rebuilding before late November; There is a high probability of improvement in December; In January, the combined effect of the Treasury's cash replenishment and the Fed's operations needs to be reassessed. A rebound in reserve requirements can alleviate constraints on banks. The clearest anchor at present is still the $850 billion cash target by the end of December. Therefore, before late November, liquidity will remain at a low level, so in the medium to long term, November is still a buy-on-dips period. December's liquidity injections and the significant rebound in reserve requirements could potentially drive a Bitcoin rally. Last week, we discussed a potential year-end rally in crypto, also from a liquidity perspective. The past two days have seen a resurgence of pessimism in the crypto market. Personally, I still believe a new cycle is beginning, but we'll need to wait until liquidity recovers.