AiCoin中文|11月 11, 2026 06:03
Do you think large ETF inflows are a good thing? Actually, quite the opposite: when ETFs are flooding in like crazy, Bitcoin is often at its peak.
Last year, the day with the largest ETF inflow was October 6, 2025, with a single-day inflow of $1.2 billion. That day was also Bitcoin's all-time high, and a month later it dropped by 19.6%. This year, the day with the largest inflow was September 21, 2026, with a single-day inflow of $1 billion. That day was the highest point since February, and it has since dropped by 14.0%.
Looking back at the days with the largest ETF inflows since their inception, 40% of the days with the largest inflows occurred within a week before or after the peak of a phase; if you pick any random day, it's only 14%.
The reason is simple: ETF funds move with price. On each of the 10 days with the largest inflows, Bitcoin had already risen significantly. By the time the news broke, the rally had already peaked.
Buying on a day with over $500 million in inflows and holding for a month has only a 43% chance of making a profit; buying on any random day has a 55% chance. On the day of the large outflow, the chance of buying the dip was only 38%.
ETF funds are basically chasing highs and selling lows. This week, ETFs are experiencing another large outflow. Are you thinking of buying the dip again?
Bitcoin ETF, ETF Fund Flow, BTC, AiCoin
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