Parr BTC Market Daily Report - 11.11 I. Candlestick Chart 1. Daily Chart (Figure 1) The market continues its downward trend, breaching the weekend low of 735 and reaching 727. Currently, the daily chart remains in a downtrend. The next support level is around 71. The current view on the daily chart is to buy spot on dips, avoiding full positions, as the downtrend is not over until a firm hold above 75. 2. Hourly Chart (Figure 2) 1) Still range-bound. After breaching 735, the market has stabilized. The first move should be to test the 75H1 bearish oblique level. If this level is rejected, the downtrend will continue. If it breaks through, the next target is the 76 bearish oblique level. Observe the price reaction there. If it breaks through, the short-term downtrend will end, and the next targets are 79 and 81. II. Data, US Stocks, Macroeconomics 1. Data 1) Liquidation 1D 108.78M (Long 88.88 / Short 19.90), 12H 10.75M (Long 4.14 / Short 6.62). 1D long positions accounted for approximately 82%, with a significant pullback in the past 12H, due to a slight increase in short positions during the rebound. 2) Liquidation Status BTC (Current Price 73,756): Maximum upside potential 75,850 (286M), 75,800 (259M); Maximum downside potential 72,050 (233M), 72,250 (225M). 2. Macroeconomics 1) US October CPI exceeded expectations across the board, US 2Y yield rose approximately 18.9bp to 4.736%, the US dollar strengthened, and US stocks fell. Currently, the implied probability of a 25bp rate hike in December is approximately 89%; this does not equate to the Fed having already decided to raise rates, nor does it rule out the market repricing to a 50bp hike. 2) Crude oil prices have fallen continuously due to easing tensions between the US and Iran, reaching a two-month low, primarily because US officials downplayed the possibility of further large-scale military action against Iran. However, Iran denies that it is negotiating with the US. The US's statement of easing tensions is different from the two sides having reached an agreement. 3. US Stocks 1) Last night's CPI exceeded expectations across the board, leading to a repricing of interest rate expectations and suppressing the valuation of tech stocks: Dow Jones -0.30%, S&P 500 -0.38%, Nasdaq 100 -0.60%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -0.35%. 2) Anthropic's IPO fundraising is attracting attention. Reuters reports that its expected fundraising ceiling is approximately $64.4 billion, with a fully diluted valuation potentially reaching $1.4 trillion. 3) Earnings: CRWV's revenue was $3.661 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations, and the stock rose approximately 2% in after-hours trading. III. Trading Recommendations The most significant contradiction in the current market is the rapid decline in crude oil prices, while US inflation remains higher than expected. Interest rate pressures are temporarily outweighing the positive impact of falling energy prices, putting renewed pressure on AI technology stocks, and causing BTC to maintain its downward trend. Currently, US stocks are performing well in after-hours trading, and BTC has stabilized above 735 in the short term. Therefore, a short-term rebound is expected, with upside targets at 75 and 76. A break above 765 would, in my opinion, signal the end of the short-term decline. For more real-time information, please join our community: http://t.me/pabuerbtc