彼得兔
彼得兔|11月 11, 2026 05:09
As mentioned in the group yesterday afternoon, there was a high probability of a downward test of the 72700 support level, and indeed, it rebounded strongly after hitting that level last night. The support level for BTC below 72000 is at 68800-69300. Figure 1 compares the 1-hour charts of the Nasdaq and BTC. You can see that BTC is currently almost entirely following the US stock market, but weaker. Specifically, when the US stock market rises sharply, BTC rises slightly, and when the US stock market rises slightly, BTC trades sideways. Based on the recent high similarity, we'll discuss the Nasdaq and Bitcoin together today. First, the Nasdaq: If the blue segment in Figure 2 represents the entire pullback of the Nasdaq since early October, this is a strong minor correction. The movement from 24262 on this path is an upward trend, and since it's an upward trend, it should break through 26685. Otherwise, the movement from 24262 is a rebound, and the blue segment is just the first wave of the pullback. A break above 25584 would be a strong rebound, while a drop below 24500 should be a warning sign of the rebound ending and further correction. If the Nasdaq confirms it's just a rebound, and the correction continues after the rebound ends, what will happen to Bitcoin? As shown in Figure 3, Bitcoin rebounded after reaching 72,700 last night, but the strength of this V-shaped rebound is currently insufficient; it remains below the 2/1 mark of the green Gann angle line. Only a move above the 2/1 mark (74,100) and without breaking lower levels could temporarily halt the decline; otherwise, the correction will continue. Bitcoin needs to act quickly and rebound as soon as possible. The resistance level above the 2/1 mark is at 78,400-78,850. Before the Nasdaq's rebound/first wave of upward movement ends, the higher Bitcoin rebounds, the greater the likelihood that the subsequent correction will end above 68,800-69,300. A reaction at key levels is crucial; a continuous decline could render support levels ineffective.
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