MSTR is highly likely to be removed from the MSCI index tomorrow, resulting in $1.6 billion in passive selling pressure! But Saylor has $4.7 billion in cash on hand; will it really be forced to sell BTC? Following higher-than-expected CPI and the Anthropic crash on tech stocks, Bitcoin faces another risk event: MSCI will announce its November index review results tomorrow, and MSTR is highly likely to be removed. Strategy disclosed that its fund tracking the MSCI Global Investable Markets Index holds approximately 13 million shares of MSTR, representing about 3.1% of the underlying outstanding shares. Based on the recent share price of $121, this is worth approximately $1.57 billion, or about $1.6 billion in potential passive selling pressure. As of November 8th, Strategy held 850,364 BTC, along with approximately $4.77 billion in USD reserves and $146.2 million in additional cash. Based on the company's disclosed annual preferred stock dividends and debt interest of approximately $1.51 billion, the USD reserves alone could cover approximately 38 months of related expenses, while the company's minimum reserve requirement is for the next 12 months. In other words, even if MSTR is removed, the sale of shares by index funds will not directly deduct a single penny from Strategy's account, nor will it automatically trigger a BTC sell-off. Strategy still raised approximately $283.8 million net through an ATM share offering last week and purchased 1,036 BTC, spending approximately $81.9 million. Additionally, approximately $188.3 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred stock. The company's capital operations continue, but its official mNAV is only about 1.08 times, indicating a relatively low financing premium. If MSTR continues to decline, the dilution cost of common stock financing will increase, reducing its ability to issue shares to buy BTC in the future. This event has three layers of impact on Bitcoin: Short-term: Passive fund rebalancing of MSTR lowers the stock price, which is then transmitted to BTC through market sentiment. Medium-term: The MSTR valuation premium shrinks, Strategy's financing capacity decreases, and the pace of corporate BTC accumulation may slow down. Long term: If other index providers also begin excluding digital asset vault companies, the entire model of publicly traded companies raising funds through capital markets to buy cryptocurrencies could be impacted. This event is clearly negative for MSTR itself, but it doesn't yet pose a direct supply shock to BTC. Saylor's $4.77 billion cash reserves give him ample time; being excluded from MSCI won't force him to sell his coins tomorrow.