Phyrex|11月 10, 2026 20:37
Before the CPI data was released today, Fed Chair Waller had already issued a hawkish statement. As a 2026 voting member, he believes a rate hike should continue in December, and even suggested that if the CPI data is greater than or equal to 0.3%, a rate hike should be implemented, and not just any rate hike, but a one-time 50 basis point increase. The CPI data indeed came in at 0.3%, lower than the previous value but higher than expected. According to CME Group, the probability of a December rate hike is now close to 100%.
After the CPI data was released, another 2026 voting member, Logan, also spoke out. Like Waller, he not only supports a December rate hike but also believes the Fed should raise rates by at least 50 basis points. The only point less hawkish than Waller's is that Logan believes the 50 basis point hike could be implemented in two separate phases. Market sentiment is now quite negative. While the CPI result was expected, the sharp drop in Nvidia's stock price has negatively impacted the entire AI and semiconductor sectors.
The only thing that could boost market sentiment in the short term, in my opinion, is the end of the war between the US and Iran. The rise in CPI, or the Fed's hawkish stance, is mainly about inflation, and the biggest driver of inflation is oil. If oil prices could return to around $60, everything would be fine. Every time I think about this, I curse Trump; what a stupid decision to go and attack Iran, and look what happened.
Currently, Bitcoin is still closely following tech stocks. Once the war ends, oil prices will fall, and the inflation problem will be solved. It's even possible that the Fed won't need to raise interest rates in December. Right now, it seems the problem is still with the US. Although Trump's tone has softened recently, his actions are still focused on attacking Iran.
@Gate, for more market information.
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