November 9th, three days after I posted my "15-day stress test" scenario. The script is unfolding, but it's bloodier than I imagined! The US-Iran situation is evolving into a war of attrition, a "neither war nor peace" struggle. Trump just stated that the war with Iran is "militarily over," attempting to find a way to back down. However, Iran's top security official directly refuted this, stating: "Stop fabricating fake news about fictitious talks, and first accept our seven conditions." A major war is temporarily off, but the blockade by the "Iron Gate" task force continues. The geopolitical fuse hasn't been pulled; it's just that the "explosion" has turned into a "slow grind." And this "slow grind," coupled with macroeconomic data, has become the boulder crushing risk assets. Last night, the October CPI data was released: a 0.4% month-on-month increase, and a 0.3% core increase, both exceeding expectations. The illusion of an interest rate cut has been completely shattered. The market has priced in an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with some even pricing in a 50 basis point hike. Amid this surge in risk-free interest rates, Bitcoin has plummeted to around $73,300, hitting a low of $72,997. My initial projection of $73,500 (Fibonacci 1.618) has been breached. The core question now is whether $70,000 can hold. To make matters worse, Nvidia is also bleeding. Last night, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,100 points, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose nearly 7%, and AMD rose over 13%. However, Nvidia bucked the trend, plummeting 4.27% to close at $178.67, a near seven-month low. The reason isn't a lack of AI demand, but rather the "Huang Renxun risk" being addressed separately. An independent investigation by the board has begun, with earnings released on November 17th and closed-door testimony before Capitol Hill on November 18th. Two knives hang overhead. Three days ago, I said: Ordinary people see the news as Middle Eastern gunfire, but traders know it's a blood-sucking pump draining liquidity. Now, there are three blood-sucking pumps: the US-Iran stalemate is dragging down oil prices, CPI is stuck with expectations of interest rate cuts, and the Nvidia scandal is killing sentiment in tech stocks. After Bitcoin fell below 73,500, the next stop is the critical 70,000 level. Whether it can hold depends on when this wave of leveraged longs is completely wiped out. I'm keeping some ammunition. The countdown is still on.