Is Anthropic's IPO market capitalization calculated based on issued shares or fully diluted shares? I personally believe it's the former. CNBC reported that the fully diluted base is approximately $1.405 trillion, calculated using the upper limit of the offering price range of $78 multiplied by the total number of fully diluted shares. Here are a few points: 1. Anthropic's official documents disclose that after the IPO plus the $26 billion private placement, the actual number of economically valuable shares outstanding (mainly Class A and Class N) is approximately 13.087 billion. At $78, this corresponds to a market capitalization of approximately $1.02 trillion. 2. Full dilution includes all potential future share issuances, primarily: 1) Issued but unexercised options, approximately 1.77 billion shares (weighted average exercise price approximately $2.91); 2) Unvested RSUs (Restricted Stock Units), approximately 1.07 billion shares; 3) Shares reserved for the 2026 new equity incentive plan, approximately 1.92 billion shares; 4) Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESPP) reservations: approximately 128 million shares; 5) Other potential dilution items (such as additional issuances by charitable foundations, depending on the circumstances). Totaling these, the total number of fully diluted shares is approximately 18 billion. 18 billion shares × $78 ≈ $1.404 trillion, roughly consistent with the $1.405 trillion reported by CNBC. Other media outlets have also given a full dilution range of approximately $1.3–$1.45 trillion, depending on the specific items included and the assumed prices. 3. However, a crucial point is how long it will take for the "fully diluted" portion of future potential shares to be fully diluted. Of the four categories of "potentially future potential shares" listed above, only the first category has actually been issued but not exercised. If no options are exercised before the IPO, the next exercise is estimated to be a year later. The latter three categories are actually reserved in advance and have not been issued at all. Therefore, "fully diluted" is a theoretical maximum (assuming all options are exercised, all RSUs vest, and all reserved shares are eventually issued). Actual dilution occurs gradually year by year and usually takes several years. In short: 1) 1.02 trillion is the current market capitalization of actually issued/to-be-issued shares (calculated at the upper limit of the offering price range); 2) 1.405 trillion is the upper limit assumption that includes all potentially future potential shares. However, in reality, calculating based on the actual issued/to-be-issued shares over the next year is the most reasonable. This article is sponsored by @bitget_zh, "Bitget Buy US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading"