October CPI: Core rate near the threshold; December's 50% increase becomes a viable option. October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%; core rate rose 0.3%, exceeding the expected 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of 0.3%; super core rate rose 0.4%. Waller clearly stated the conditions during the day: a 50% increase should be considered if the core rate is around 0.3% or higher. Tonight it happened to be right on the line, which is incredibly frustrating. Oil prices had already fallen to $85, and they still pulled this stunt. Utterly speechless. At the Polymarket December meeting, before Waller's speech, a 25% increase would yield approximately 78.5%, no change would yield 19.5%, and a 50% increase would yield less than 1%; before the CPI, a 25% increase rose to 87.5%, and a 50% increase was approximately 4%; after the CPI, a 25% increase was approximately 84.5%, a 50% increase was approximately 11%, and no change was 2.5%. Kalshi's predictions are in the same direction: a 25 basis point increase from 88% to 82%, an increase of more than 25 basis points from 5% to 12%, and no change from 8% to 4%. The probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate hike by the end of 2026 (i.e., a 50 basis point hike in December) is approximately 9%. Oil prices are pricing in a ceasefire. WTI crude has fallen below $85, down about 19% from its October 30 high. CNBC reports that Brent crude has fallen below $90, yet the Hormuz blockade remains in place. Oil prices are suppressing energy prices, but not core inflation. The 2-year US Treasury yield rose about 16 basis points to 4.70%, the dollar index is around 102, gold fell 2.4%, and Nasdaq futures fell about 1.5%. BTC fell to $73,588, an 11-week low. Spot ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1.48 billion in the first six trading days of November, and listed companies have sold approximately 108,000 coins this year. The interest rate decision on December 9th is earlier than the November CPI on December 10th; Friday's PPI is the next variable. 1. Add 25% (approximately 82% to 85%): Moderate PPI, continued decline in oil prices, and the 2-year PPI falling back below 4.6%, giving growth stocks and BTC a breather. 2. Add 50% (approximately 11% to 12%): Overheated PPI or more officials echoing Waller's stance. Whether the 2-year PPI can hold above 4.7% could see BTC reach $73,000. 3. No change (2.5% to 4%): This would only occur if there is a sharp deterioration in the stock market or credit spreads. Oil prices have been declining, while core inflation has remained at 0.3% for three consecutive months, indicating that inflation has spread from energy to core sectors, and the cooling oil prices are unable to lift core inflation. Therefore, whether or not to increase oil production in December is no longer in doubt; the only remaining question is how much.