TraderS | 缺德道人|Nov 10, 2026 13:56
Okay, the CME data is out: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December is 86.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point hike is 13.6%. Compared to the 100% bet on a 25 basis point rate hike before the data came out, this represents a gain of over ten percentage points.
The current market situation reminds me of the period last year when the US government shutdown caused liquidity shortages. The crypto market also experienced a major crash on October 11th, while this year it's due to hacking... It's truly a synchronized rhythm.
At last year's pace, does this mean things won't improve until early 2027?
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