TraderS | 缺德道人|11月 10, 2026 13:34
Just after the SpaceX IPO, market sentiment is generally pessimistic, especially given Anthropic's own actions today, including email retractions and downward revisions to its stock price, valuation, and fundraising amount.
Based on Anthropic's current offering of 825 million shares at $70-78 per share, raising up to $64.4 billion, its IPO valuation is between $920 billion and $1.02 trillion, a 50% reduction from the previous valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion.
However, the wide fluctuations seen in SpaceX's IPO are normal. The current volatility in the US stock market is even greater than that of altcoins; the SPCX stock price previously experienced a 50% drop from $228 to $104. Therefore, significant fluctuations in Anthropic's valuation due to market sentiment are to be expected.
From the $3.4 billion purchase of gas turbines for power generation to the emergency release of Fable 5.2, it's clear that SpaceX has gone all out for the IPO and will not cancel it as some have suggested. Neither SpaceX nor the US stock market can afford such a massive delay, not to mention the numerous stakeholders tied to the IPO waiting to cash out. If an IPO is canceled due to poor market conditions, market sentiment will only be further aggravated, potentially leading to a death spiral. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans dare to or can afford this possibility, making a strong market intervention inevitable.
When Anthropic finally goes public, it will inevitably undergo a significant adjustment based on overall market sentiment. If market sentiment has recovered and liquidity is good by then, a 50% increase from its trillion-dollar valuation is possible.
However, if market sentiment is still low, Anthropic's IPO price will be significantly less inflated compared to the SPCX. As the AI sector shifts its focus from financing capabilities and capital expenditures to end-user revenue, an undervalued market capitalization actually offers greater growth potential. Buying at a low price and holding on is likely more stable than a high-opening, high-flying, and volatile price swing.
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