律动BlockBeats|Nov 10, 2026 12:48
[Reuters Poll: December Fed Rate Hike Expectations Solidify, But End of Tightening Cycle Remains Debatable]
According to BlockBeats, a Reuters poll released on November 10th showed that approximately 55% of economists surveyed—56 out of 101—expect a December rate hike to mark the end of the current tightening cycle, roughly unchanged from the previous month.
However, 45 economists still expect the Fed to raise rates at least twice more, including more than half of the primary dealers surveyed. This aligns with market pricing and suggests that the risks to the inflation outlook have not changed since the US midterm elections. Changes in the political landscape are unlikely to quickly alleviate inflationary pressures. Despite market hopes for a resolution to the nearly nine-month-long Middle East conflict, which has driven crude oil futures prices down more than 22% from their late October highs, inflationary pressures remain. A strong job market, resilient economic growth, and inflation consistently above the Fed's 2% target for nearly six years all indicate that further monetary tightening remains necessary.
Tom Porcelli, chief economist at Wells Fargo, said, "The Fed's decision depends on the upcoming inflation data, which will prompt it to raise rates again. In fact, the Fed has every reason to raise rates at its October meeting."
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