One LAST CPI to cue a year-end RALLY or a SELL OFF. And this time, the MONTHLY numbers carry the weight. U.S. CPI drops today at 8:30 AM ET with no official YoY reading. The 2025 shutdown prevented the BLS from collecting last October’s prices, leaving a gap in the annual comparison. For investors, one tenth of a point in monthly core CPI could shift the December debate from a 25 bps hike to 50 bps. The MACRO BACKDROP: 1. September inflation came in hot (3.7% YoY, up from 3.4%) → prices are speeding up again. 2. Price rises are spreading (70%+ of core services categories up 3%+) → it’s not just gas anymore. 3. Payrolls rose 165K and unemployment fell to 4.1% → the Fed has room to keep tightening In fact, odds of a December hike rose to about 77% after Friday’s jobs report, up from 67% a week earlier. Now, markets see an 84% CHANCE the Fed hikes rates in December. Fed Governor Waller says he’d "back a hike" even if inflation cools, and a BIGGER one if core hits 0.3%. What today's CORE CPI number could mean: 🟢 0.1% → COOL. Hike odds drop, stocks and Bitcoin could rise 🟠 0.2% → AS EXPECTED. December hike stays on 🔴 0.3%+ → HOT. Bigger hike risk, stocks and Bitcoin could fall If markets drop, check what bond yields do: 📈Yields up = traders fear more hikes 📉Yields down = traders fear a slowdown One is an inflation scare. The other is a growth scare.