TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Nov 10, 2026 10:54
Tonight's CPI data release is another day, but given the current market context, its impact on risk markets may be less significant than before. The market's current focus is on whether the AI bubble has burst, and whether this marks the end of a major cycle or just a temporary correction. Waller's comments directly boosted the probability of a December rate hike on the CME to an astonishing 99.1%, even shifting the market's focus to whether the rate hike will be 25 basis points (bps) or 50 bps. Therefore, the weight of today's CPI data is significantly reduced. Of course, given the sharp decline in AI concept stocks, especially hardware stocks, 25 bps is sufficient; a 50 bps hike would likely result in widespread losses. Although oil prices have fallen to the 80s, this hasn't yet been reflected in today's data. Even if prices remain low, the impact will only begin to appear in next month's data. Furthermore, due to the missing data from last October's government shutdown, today's data only shows month-on-month comparisons, not year-on-year figures. However, this might be a good thing, considering oil prices were still in the 50s-60s in October last year; removing a potentially unfavorable year-on-year figure is beneficial. Unless some surprising event occurs tonight that lowers the probability of a December rate hike, a rate hike is inevitable in December, and the market is already prepared for it. The more important factors going forward are the earnings reports of major companies and the progress of Anthropic's IPO.
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