DC大于C|11月 10, 2026 08:49
The October CPI data will be released tonight, and the market expects a slowdown in month-on-month growth.
Due to the government shutdown in October last year (October 1st to November 12th), year-on-year data will not be released this time, a rare occurrence.
Since the November CPI will only be released after the December interest rate meeting, this CPI data may become an important basis for a December interest rate hike. Currently, the CME shows that the expectation of a December rate hike is already above 80%, indicating that some of it has already been priced in by the market.
Judging solely from the expected values, all are lower than the previous values, which is still optimistic. If the released value meets or falls below the expected value, it will be positive; slightly higher than the expected value but lower than the previous value may be slightly negative; higher than the previous value will be directly negative.
Regarding the oil price that the market is focused on, WTI has fallen below $85 and BZ has fallen below $90, both reaching their lowest points since September. Personally, I think that as long as tonight's data is not particularly bad, the risk market will still be boosted.
I am still holding my long positions in Micron and SanDisk. We'll see the figures released at 9:30 PM tonight.
I just hope that after tonight, the US and Iran can gradually ease tensions and not escalate further.
Because oil prices in November and December will directly affect inflation in December, January, and February. A December rate hike isn't so bad;
what's truly difficult is expecting another rate hike in Q1 of next year. DYOR
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