Tonight we will see the October CPI data, which only shows month-on-month changes and not year-on-year figures. Why won't year-on-year data be released this time? Last October, the US government shutdown resulted in missing inflation data for that month, so there's no base for calculating the year-on-year figure for this October. Also, the year-on-year growth rate of real income won't be released. Looking only at the month-on-month data, I personally expect the October CPI to weaken. The reasons are: 1. Gasoline prices fell month-on-month. 1) EIA/BTS average monthly gasoline price: September approximately $4.36/gallon, October average $4.31/gallon (month-on-month decrease of approximately 1.0%) 2) AAA retail price trend: approximately $4.41 at the end of September, gradually returning to approximately $4.20–4.27 at the end of October, and currently (early November) further down to around $4.15. 2. Core services, particularly hotels and airfares, normalized after a strong September, and expectations also declined. 3. A check of major US rental platforms like Zillow and Apartments.com shows that rents in October generally saw a slight decrease or remained flat; autumn is typically a slow season for rentals. Overall, gasoline prices and core components together contributed to a cooling of inflation in October, though this is just my personal projection. Last week's non-farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations. If this CPI is lower than expected, it will help ease expectations and lower US Treasury yields, without directly eliminating the probability of a December rate hike, but it will boost market sentiment. The most significant macroeconomic impact remains yesterday's discussion (https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2119782379132977513?a=c9bEm9muvuGYiSHdOoQ&s=46): the US-Iran negotiations have reached a critical juncture. As previously mentioned, what's more important for the market isn't the December rate hike, but rather the oil price trend in the next month or two. This will determine whether the Fed will raise rates again in the first quarter of next year. This is more crucial. This post is sponsored by @bitget_zh, "Bitget Buy US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading"