Tonight's US CPI data only releases the monthly rate, not the year-on-year rate. Because of the US government shutdown last October, there is no data for October of last year, therefore no year-on-year rate from October of last year to October of this year. Looking at the current core monthly rate, several major investment banks predict that October's figures will be lower than September's. This is because airfares, hotels, and room rates were unusually high in September. Additionally, October also sees the semi-annual reset of healthcare prices, which is certain to push prices down. The potential risk is that price increases in electronics and travel-related items have not yet stopped. Therefore, the market currently prices in at 0.3 (rounding up to 0.3 if the figure is 0.25) or higher, with a 36% probability... (Furthermore, most investment banks underestimated the CPI in August and September; will they continue to underestimate it in October?) Also, if the core figure is 0.2, we need to specifically check whether the decimal part is 0.2 from 0.15 or 0.24... However, since the figure will likely be out and about today, we won't be updating the decimal part in real-time this month... ------------- From a trading perspective, a December rate hike is already 80% priced in... So even if the CPI exceeds expectations, the room for further upward pricing of the rate hike expectation is only about 10-25 basis points... However, if it unexpectedly falls short (for example, 0.14 rounded up to 0.1), this dovish surprise lowers the probability of a rate hike, allowing for greater upward price fluctuations...