So far, the on-chain conclusion

: Medium- to long-term weakness, defensive stance recommended; but a return to bear market territory is not yet confirmed... This recent decline feels somewhat like a news-driven market... The reason a bear market cannot be confirmed yet is because: 1. Older coins (3 years and older) have barely moved, so there's no panic. Short-term traders are currently only experiencing an average floating loss of 1-2%, not yet at the point of major surrender... 【Next Path】: 1. Either like in August 2023, recovering 75.7k within the next few weeks. This pullback to the short-term cost line wasn't deep, and it formed a higher low on the monthly chart, maintaining the initial bullish framework. 2. Either, like in September 2019 and October 2025, the rebound to 75.7k-79k is met with selling pressure to break even, and SOPR is pushed back down as soon as it touches 1, falling towards the 200-week moving average (67.7k). 【How to determine these two paths】 1. Return to the bull market framework: The daily chart can confirm a recovery above 75.7k (the bull/bear line returns to above 4), and ideally, the ETF should resume continuous net inflows (demand is the driving force behind rising prices). 2. Return to the bear market path: A break below the 200-week moving average (67.7k). 【How to trade these two paths next】 Actually, the current data cannot predict which of these two paths will lead to the next move... However, each path has its own trading methods... It depends on whether you want to go long or short... If you remain bullish, then follow path 1: 1) Reduce your medium- to long-term long positions to a defensive level (e.g., half of your usual position). Don't short now; the risk-reward ratio for shorting is not worthwhile. 2) The daily chart has closed above 75.7k for two consecutive days, bringing the bull/bear line back to level 4. Gradually add back the positions that were reduced. (This can be done in two batches: add when it breaks above, and add again after a pullback to 75.7k without breaking it). If the daily chart falls below 74k, then reduce positions again. If you already believe it's entering a bear market, you can use path 2. Then look for a failed rebound between 75.7k and 79k to short on a rebound (a high concentration of short-term traders' costs. 75.7k represents 155-day short-term traders, and 79k represents 1-3 month short-term traders). The stop-loss should still be above 79k (currently the ETF's average cost line)... --------------- This article is for medium- to long-term trading. The next article will continue with intraday and short-term strategies.