《Three-Dimensional Trading System | BTC Evening Market Analysis (3/3): Structure and Core Judgment》 Structural Pattern: The price has decisively broken below the short-term support/resistance level of 76K, and a head and shoulders pattern has been established on the daily chart! After falling from above 80K, BTC has been consolidating in the 73.5K-75.5K range. Sunday's dip to 73.5K was the lowest point of this decline and a new low since August. The current price is 74.6K, stuck in the middle. Support: 73K-74K is the whale's defense zone. The 200-day moving average is near 73K, a key technical level. If it breaks below 73K, further downside potential will open up. A move above 76K is needed for a valid recovery; otherwise, it's just a weak rebound. Macroeconomic Fundamental Analysis: The current macroeconomic environment is somewhat suppressive for BTC. The US added 165,000 non-farm payroll jobs in October, far exceeding the expected 65,000, raising the probability of a December rate hike to a high of 79%-83%. The 10-year US Treasury yield is around 4.85%-4.88%, with persistently high real interest rates putting continued pressure on zero-interest assets like BTC. More importantly, the correlation between BTC and tech stocks has been exposed again. On November 5th, the Nasdaq plunged 5.5%, semiconductors fell 12%, and BTC fell by over 5% in tandem, while gold bucked the trend and rose. This indicates that under the current ETF-dominated funding structure, BTC's trading logic is closer to that of high-beta tech assets than safe-haven assets. This week also sees CPI and PPI data. If inflation continues to be overheated, expectations of a rate hike will be further strengthened, and the macroeconomic pressure on BTC will not ease. Core Judgment: In the short term, expect narrow-range consolidation within the 73K-76K range; the medium-term trend is generally bearish, with a downward test of the bottom, and a drop to 70K is no longer an unattainable target. After reaching 70K, a rebound is highly likely, with the rebound peaking around 76K. The overall environment has changed, and US stocks are also precariously positioned at high levels. Bitcoin will likely be dragged down by US stocks, as the correlation between the two is increasing. For short- to medium-term traders, any subsequent rebounds in US stocks and Bitcoin present an opportunity to exit positions. Long-term traders can buy BTC on dips and hold for at least two to three years, until 2028.