小龙先生|Nov 09, 2026 14:12
《Three-Dimensional Trading System | BTC Evening Market Analysis (2/3): On-Chain Data》
Some whales are buying on dips, but this couldn't stop ETF institutions from experiencing net outflows for two consecutive weeks. BTC supply and demand are now unbalanced.
Last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion, the largest weekly outflow since the end of June.
BlackRock's IBIT saw a weekly outflow of approximately $1.21 billion, making it the main seller. ETFs are selling; this is currently the clearest signal of capital flows.
However, whales are buying in the spot market with real money.
“Mr. 1,000” increased his holdings by 5,000 BTC in two days, at an average price of $75,980, bringing his holdings to 6,000 BTC, worth approximately $456 million.
Another whale, dormant for over a year, bought 3,009 BTC in a single day. Retail investor addresses decreased by 270,000 in 30 days, indicating a concentration of holdings in large investors.
Strategy continued to accumulate 1,036 BTC at an average price of $79,012, but the current price has fallen below its average holding price of $75,456, resulting in a paper loss despite holding on.
On Hyperliquid, large holders' net positions have turned short after seven consecutive months of being bullish. A similar signal occurred in October 2025, after which the price fell to 60K, warranting caution.
There is significant divergence among miners. Listed mining companies like Keel and Bitdeer are liquidating their holdings and investing in AI, but the total balance in miners' wallets actually increased by 8,087 BTC in a week, indicating that small and medium-sized miners are not engaging in large-scale dumping.
On-chain assessment: There is genuine buying support around 74K, but an overwhelming buying advantage has not yet formed, and there is a significant disagreement between buyers and sellers.
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