陈桂林|11月 09, 2026 08:35
1. Previously, when Bitcoin stubbornly held above 80,000, I said it was abnormally strong.
2. Later, I said that as long as Bitcoin remained above 76, it would be a strong correction.
Now that Bitcoin has fallen below 76,000, it has shifted from strong to weak.
Let me explain my understanding of "strong" and "weak":
Strong means that indicators are diverging upwards, the market is over-leveraged, and the load is too heavy, forcing a pullback to liquidate high-leverage positions, unload excess assets, and then continue the upward trend.
What does "shifting from strong to weak" mean? Simply put, previously the bullish and bearish forces were unequal, with the bulls having the advantage. Now, the bulls and bears have equal strength. It must be said that recently, the overall market environment (the macro environment is unfavorable) has been on the side of the bears, and the bulls, apart from staunch holders, have had no other advantage.
If Bitcoin's previous explosive strength suggested a rapid surge with no entry opportunities, then the current scenario is different. Since it's already entered a period of consolidation, let it consolidate; the adjustment period might be longer than anticipated.
1. The bears are powerful. They used oil as a selling point before, and now that oil prices are declining, they're using FX as a selling point. 6.
2. We can only wait for the US stock market to stabilize.
3. In the short term, I believe we're currently in a continuation of the rebound. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level is a key level; if it falls further, a pullback will be difficult, and many bulls have been wiped out by the bears' consensus. Moreover, it's currently supported by the daily SMA200 moving average.
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