Philip Swift|Nov 09, 2026 08:07
Update on this important post:
Back in August I wrote this about the 1-year moving average (50WMA / 52WMA):
"It's very possible we break above it, drop back below it at some point, and only then see the eventual uptrend continuation."
That's exactly whats happening. We broke above it, calls for "up only", and now we're back beneath it.
That's the alpha decay I outlined. When this many people are positioned for the same outcome on a metric, fakeouts become WAY more likely.
I still think the eventual uptrend continuation comes. It was just less likely to come in a straight line.
Stay calm, dont get swayed by influencers, and zoom out ✊🟠
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