Rocky
Rocky|Nov 09, 2026 06:39
Don't treat Huang's situation like mere gossip. On the surface, it's about Huang admitting to infidelity and the board investigating. But the more I look at it, the more I feel this isn't just a matter of personal morality; the power struggle behind it is far more intriguing than any gossip! Let's start with the facts: • Huang sent a letter to employees admitting to infidelity to his wife. • The other woman is a former executive at Megaspeed, and US intelligence suspects she was recruited by China. • The board established an independent committee and hired external lawyers to investigate. • Three congressional committees requested a closed-door briefing on November 18th. • The board also specifically emphasized that there is currently no evidence of a leak of classified information. Let's see why they're making such a big deal out of something without evidence. My opinion has several layers: 1️⃣ First, destroy his public image, then talk about power. Think about it, where is the best place to use a "personal morality" issue? It's where it's easiest to silence people. Huang himself admitted it, so his confidence in negotiations is gone. To label someone, a simple "espionage risk" is enough; no real evidence is needed. 2️⃣ The real target is the chip policy towards China. Don't forget, Huang's biggest demand over the past two years has been for the US to open up advanced chip exports to China. He's been lobbying relentlessly, constantly shouting, "We can't lose the Chinese market!" Now, with a label attached that he might be "targeted by Chinese intelligence," who would dare listen to his calls for opening up exports? Everything he says carries suspicion. This move is tantamount to removing him from the policy negotiation table. 3️⃣ Nvidia is too big, so big it keeps people up at night. • Market capitalization approached $5.8 trillion in October • Recently fell below $5 trillion • No succession plan, no clear successor • The company is controlled by Huang alone. How can Washington be at ease with a $5 trillion company where all decisions rest on one person's shoulders? I think this investigation is very likely aimed at changing the governance structure, filling the board with more people with political backgrounds, making Nvidia more compliant. 4️⃣ The timing is also interesting. Nvidia is scheduled to release its earnings report on the 17th, and the market is worried about an AI bubble. This news breaking at this time will amplify both market sentiment and valuations. It's understandable that some might want to use this opportunity to exert pressure. So, what will Nvidia do next? I guess it will be one of these three steps: • Short-term: Admit wrongdoing and cooperate, characterizing the matter as a private matter, and firmly avoiding linking it to national security. • Medium-term: Relinquish some power, introduce more independent directors, proactively accept scrutiny, and replace the CEO. • Long-term: The strategy towards China will only become more conservative, and the alignment will become more obvious. Frankly speaking, the biggest impact of this incident is not on Nvidia personally, but on the landscape of the AI industry. The middle ground is narrowing, Nvidia is being forced to align with the US camp, and China will only become more determined to pursue domestic computing power. Of course, the investigation results are not yet available, and there is currently no evidence of a leak of classified information. Let's not treat conspiracy theories as conclusions. But from a capital and political perspective, this game is definitely not simple. For us US stock investors, Nvidia's earnings report on the 17th and the Congressional briefing on the 18th are two key dates. Be aware of the risks and manage your positions accordingly. The above is purely my personal opinion. DYOR
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