律动BlockBeats|11月 09, 2026 03:10
[Bitunix Analyst: Non-Farm Payrolls Reignite Tightening Expectations, AI Leaders Face National Security Risks, Adding Market Uncertainty]
BlockBeats reports that on November 9th, the US added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October, far exceeding market expectations of 65,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and the August and September figures were revised upwards by a combined 84,000, indicating that the actual resilience of the labor market is higher than previously estimated. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, with wage growth showing no significant cooling. Furthermore, the number of people forced into part-time work due to economic factors increased by 339,000, reflecting that while the job market is robust, there are still divergences in labor quality and job structure.
Following the data release, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in December rose to approximately 80%. This shifts the policy focus back to inflation control. However, the monthly data still needs further verification, and the CPI data released on November 10th will be the next key test; if prices also strengthen, tightening expectations may be further solidified. On the political level, another check and balance has emerged. With the Democrats controlling the Senate, they will gain greater oversight of personnel nominations. Even if Warsh becomes Fed Chairman, he may not be able to smoothly assemble a core team supporting his reform direction. This means the White House's room to influence monetary policy is limited, but it doesn't necessarily mean interest rates will move towards easing. Actual policy will still depend on inflation, employment, and consensus within the FOMC.
On the other hand, NVIDIA's board launched an independent investigation following reports that founder Jensen Huang may be a target of foreign intelligence operations. Currently, there is no evidence of leaked company secrets or national security information, and the board has stated its support for his continued leadership of the company. This incident has brought attention to the governance and national security risks of the AI leader. Overall, strong employment is pushing up interest rate expectations, political checks and balances are limiting Fed personnel reshuffling, and non-financial risks in the AI industry are gradually emerging. The dollar, bond yields, and tech stock valuations will continue to be influenced by multiple factors.
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