⚡November 9th, three days after I posted my "15-day stress test" scenario. At the time, I said the fuse would be lit in the first week. Looking back now, the script is unfolding scene by scene: ✅ I said the US would launch an airstrike → Trump himself confirmed that the US conducted a "small strike" on Iran's Qeshm Island, destroying air defenses and lasting 15 minutes. This was the first such strike since the midterm elections. ✅ I said Trump was backed into a corner → He publicly stated, "Perhaps I will have to destroy the rest of this country. You will soon find out." ✅ I said Iran wouldn't sit idly by → Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered retaliation "without geographical restrictions" and updated the list of US and Israeli targets. ✅ I said the market would initially fall → The Nikkei and Taiwan stock markets entered a bear market, and the South Korean KOSPI plunged 8.8% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker. However, the US and Iran are currently unable to reach an agreement. In a CNN interview today, Trump reiterated five times, "It is highly unlikely that we will return to war with Iran, as long as negotiations progress." While trying to save face, he continued to make harsh statements: "I would do so if necessary, but we have already fought very hard." Why is he so drastically downplaying the situation? Because Iran's inflation rate has soared to 301%, and US domestic oil prices and the economy are also struggling to cope. While Trump verbally states that a return to war with Iran is "highly unlikely," small-scale conflicts between the US and Iran are occurring frequently. Do you believe Trump's rhetoric, or the constant explosions reported from the Strait of Hormuz and Iran? The fuse of war is still lit, but its duration depends on the tug-of-war at the negotiating table. As for Bitcoin, the current price has fallen below the 76K support level, recently dropping to around 73,300, and the 50-day moving average on the weekly chart (75,500) has already been breached. ⚡️Six sets of data + six layers of pressure, market liquidity is drying up, and the bulls simply cannot hold 76K. But you need to look at this data clearly: The entire network of leveraged long positions hasn't completely surrendered. In the last wave of liquidation, over $1 billion was liquidated, burying nearly 200,000 people, 90% of whom were long positions. Even so, there are still 34,200 BTC of open long positions, with a long-short account ratio of 1.89, meaning 65% of people are still long. What does this mean? It means the cleansing isn't over yet. My predicted next target of 73,500 (Fibonacci 1.618) has been reached; the next target price is around 70,000. If this level can't be held, then the real bloodshed will begin. And the most crucial timeframe hasn't arrived yet. Trump's advisors are telling him: the window for action is before the new Congress inaugurates in January. The USS Roosevelt carrier strike group is expected to arrive in the Middle East in mid-November. November 17th: Nvidia earnings report. November 18th: Jensen Huang testifies before Congress in closed doors. Three things collided on the same timeline: aircraft carrier, earnings reports, and Capitol Hill. What I said three days ago still holds true: Ordinary people see the news as gunfire in the Middle East. Traders see the news as a liquidity-draining pump. 73,500 isn't the bottom, and it's uncertain whether 70K will ultimately hold. The real bottom will come after those 34,200 long positions are cleared out, and after the market has digested the first wave of impact after the aircraft carrier arrives. At the current price level, I reiterate my advice: don't rush to buy the dip in US stocks and Bitcoin; wait a bit longer. Keep your ammunition ready. The countdown continues.