Phyrex
Phyrex|Nov 08, 2026 19:37
This morning, I was still quite troubled by the oil price issue. Although I believe a long-term agreement between Iran and the US is achievable, I'm worried that Iran might take a hard line given Trump's latest "Iron Gate" plan. While considering whether to close my current short positions, I saw information that the House Republican leadership might impeach the Secretary of Defense. The key phrase is "Republicans are preparing for impeachment," which indicates that the Republican Party is fed up with the idea of a US-Iran war. After confirming this news, I decided not to close my short positions anymore. This is a clear signal of goodwill towards Iran. Furthermore, just now, Trump publicly stated in an interview that if the US and Iran can continue to make progress in negotiations, the probability of a US attack on Iran is very low. This also indirectly acknowledges the party's low regard for escalating war. Trump is once again making a TACO (Taco) statement, and every time he does, the situation improves. I initially thought that the end of 2026 might be difficult under Trump's continued hardline stance. However, if Trump can be restrained and negotiations with Iran can begin, then at least the probability of maintaining peace is quite high. Maintaining peace means that oil prices will slowly decline, which will greatly help alleviate the pressure on the Federal Reserve's policies. The high for Bitcoin will end tomorrow, and the probability of it reaching that level is almost nonexistent. However, I don't think $80,000 is a significant challenge for bitcoin:native at its current level. As long as there's a positive announcement that the US and Iran have officially begun negotiations, breaking through $80,000 shouldn't be a problem; I'm confident in that. @Gate, for more market insights.
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