Crypto-常山赵子龙|Nov 08, 2026 11:57
BTC & ETH
Let's analyze the market, as the data suggests we've reached a critical price point where bulls and bears will determine the outcome:
Figure 1: Contract Data: The current daily long/short ratio is above 3. Those who frequently use this data for market analysis know that this either confirms a bottom in the consolidation phase or marks the beginning of a downtrend.
Figure 2: Spot Leverage Data: The current long/short ratio in the spot leveraged Bitcoin market has also reached a critical value. The bulls have fully committed their resources; this is the highest value I've seen since I started collecting this data.
Figure 3: This shows the profit and loss data for all contract long positions across the network. As you can see, all contract long positions are currently in a loss-making phase. So how do we use this data?
Here's a brief explanation: This is a left-side indicator. When the market is rising, the upward trend will stall when all long positions across the network are excessively profitable. Conversely, when the market is falling, the downward trend will also stall when all short positions across the network are excessively profitable.
Another useful tip is: In a bull market, long positions tend not to stay underwater for long. When all long positions in the market start to lose money, the market will quickly rebound. This is a characteristic of a bull market and the underlying data logic behind the seemingly foolproof strategy of going long in a bull market. Conversely, in a bear market, short positions tend not to stay underwater for long. When all short positions across the network start to lose money, the market will quickly reverse. This is a characteristic of a bear market and the underlying data logic behind the seemingly foolproof strategy of going short in a bear market.
The most Postscript: For traders, especially medium- to long-term traders, this is a crucial decision-making juncture. You can review my analysis afterwards:
If you are bullish, especially expecting a pullback, now is an excellent buying opportunity, rather than buying impulsively when many were calling for a pullback above 85,000. Now, setting stop-loss orders is very easy; the stop-loss signal is a significant further drop below this level, with long positions in both the futures and spot leveraged markets surrendering.
If the trend is bearish, now is not an entry point, but rather a time for short- to medium-term traders to take profits on their short positions. The best time to enter short positions is after the long positions in the futures and spot leveraged markets have surrendered, confirming the downtrend, and then re-establishing short positions during a small rebound.
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