[Analysis: The Logic of BTC's Cyclical Recovery Remains Unshakable; Losses and Panic Have Been Fully Released] BlockBeats reported on November 8th that market analyst Murphy discussed whether BTC will return to a bear market. He cited Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Momentum (RPLR-M), pointing out that this indicator, when viewed in a physical scale, observes periods of accelerated growth or decline in the profit/loss ratio, helping to identify trend turning points. Looking at a larger timeframe, the most valuable indicators are the duration of the red or green zones, whether the peak value of the green line at the top decreases, and whether the trough value of the red line at the bottom narrows. Typically, the trough value of the red line is lowest at the beginning of a bear market, indicating that losses are accelerating. Subsequently, the price makes new lows, but the trough value begins to narrow, meaning that a new round of decline cannot force a panic sell-off of the same scale, until it eventually "turns green," and this process constitutes a complete bear market cycle. The process lasted approximately 14 months from 2018 to 2019, and about 13 months from 2021 to 2023. This current cycle has lasted about 11 months. Considering the duration and the narrowing of the red line trough since the initial bottom, it has experienced a sufficiently long period of losses and panic, meeting the criteria for a cyclical bear market. Murphy emphasizes that historically, once a price "turns green" into zone B, there has never been a precedent of it returning to zone A and starting a new bear market cycle. While zone B may occasionally see intermittent "turns red," these are usually short-lived and accompanied by a decrease in the peak value of the green line, indicating a decline in the rate of profit acceleration. Therefore, analysts are not so pessimistic about concerns that a US stock market crash will cause BTC to fall to new lows. Analysts also point out that the current correlation between BTC and US stocks has reached 0.8, close to the high point since 2020. According to the mean reversion pattern, the correlation tends to decline after reaching a certain threshold. If the long-term trend is simply "US stocks rise, BTC falls; US stocks fall, BTC falls even more," then the logic of long-term holders continuing to hold approximately 14 million BTC instead of converting them all into US stocks doesn't hold water in the long run. Rome wasn't built in a day. Although there have been ups and downs, each release of panic, change of hands, and restoration of confidence has been building momentum for the next phase of the trend. Of course, historical patterns don't guarantee future repetition. Macroeconomic uncertainties remain, and BTC may experience unexpectedly sharp fluctuations. However, based on current data, there is no evidence sufficient to overturn this cyclical recovery. [Original Link]