The current market is at a crossroads: will it be an oversold rebound or a double bottom? I prefer to see a bottom formed first, then discuss a reversal. Bitcoin:native is currently trading around $76,000. The daily chart shows a clear oversold signal, with the KDJ J value dropping to 10.78 and the RSI (6) at only 34, indicating a potential short-term technical rebound. However, the MACD remains below the zero line, with the DIF below the DEA, and the daily downtrend has not yet reversed. Whether it can hold around 75,000 is crucial! The funding situation is more concerning than the technical situation. US spot BTC ETFs have seen continuous net outflows recently, with a single-day net outflow of approximately $412 million on November 6th; long-term holders are still releasing their holdings, and net inflows into exchanges have also increased, indicating a lack of sufficient spot buying to absorb demand. The external environment is also unfavorable. The Nasdaq has fallen for four consecutive weeks, the Fed's policy expectations are tightening, and regulatory uncertainty has increased after the US midterm elections, meaning risk assets will continue to face liquidity pressures in the short term. However, I don't think now is the right time to blindly short. The rebound from $58,000 to $87,000 indicates strong support at the bottom, and the current movement seems more like a second correction after a cyclical high. We cannot rule out the possibility that a bottom is gradually forming. I believe BTC will mainly fluctuate weakly over the next week, with a short-term need for an oversold rebound, but a cautious approach is still advised in the medium term. Key levels: $75,000 is the first line of defense; a break below this level would target $72,500-$73,500. On the upside, it must recover $78,000-$80,000 and further stabilize above $82,000 to truly improve the trend. The bottom can be observed in advance, but it cannot be announced prematurely. ETF fund inflows, reduced selling pressure from existing holders, and a stabilization of the Nasdaq are key to confirming a reversal.