律动BlockBeats
律动BlockBeats|Nov 08, 2026 06:19
[Kalshi: Trading Volume in US Midterm Election-Related Markets Exceeds $2.5 Billion, Approximately Double that of the 2024 Election Cycle] BlockBeats reported on November 8th that prediction market platform Kalshi released its 2026 US midterm election recap, stating that the cumulative trading volume in related markets exceeded $2.5 billion, higher than the $1.3 billion in the 2024 election cycle. According to the platform's statistics, as of 6:00 AM ET on November 4th, in 487 elections with results, the candidate favored by the market won in 479, accounting for approximately 98%. Kalshi stated that the market was already biased towards Democratic control of both the House and Senate and a majority of gubernatorial positions before Election Day, and in most elections, it reflected the results several hours ahead of television networks. At 8:10 PM ET on November 3rd, the market probability of the Democrats controlling the House of Representatives reached 99%; at 9:00 PM ET, the probability of them controlling the Senate exceeded 99%. However, the platform also pointed out that while traders previously favored a Democratic victory of over 230 seats in the House and over 51 seats in the Senate, they did not fully factor in a scenario of a larger-scale victory. According to the assessment at the time of the recap, the Democrats were likely to win over 250 seats in the House and over 56 seats in the Senate, with some key election results still pending. Kalshi also plans to continue expanding its international election market and is working on building a special section on the 2028 US presidential election, covering the candidates, Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, and the eventual winner.
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