Bank of America's chief strategist, Hartnett, outlined three conditions for buying US stocks at the bottom. After reading them, I chuckled. Condition 1: Central banks stop tightening. Reality: The probability of a Fed rate hike in December is still above 70%. Hartnett himself said that December could see a concentrated wave of rate hikes, with the Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank potentially acting simultaneously. There's also a high possibility of a final Fed rate hike in March 2027! Condition 2: The 10-year US Treasury yield falls below 4.5%. Reality: Today it closed at 4.859%, still a long way from 4.5%. Condition 3: Oil prices fall below $80. Reality: Brent crude is still around $98 today. Hartnett's target is below $80, which is almost 20% short. Moreover, the conflict in the Middle East is far from over. None of the three conditions were met. However, there's a crucial detail in Hartnett's framework that most people have overlooked: Of these three conditions, only one is beyond the Fed's control: oil prices. Central banks can choose to stop raising interest rates, and US Treasury yields can fall due to cooling inflation. But oil prices are stuck at $98 because of the war in the Middle East, which has inflated the threat premium in the Strait of Hormuz. No interest rate decision can solve this problem; only the end of the war can. Therefore, the real transmission chain is as follows: Middle East ceasefire → Oil price drop → Easing inflationary pressures → Central bank stops raising interest rates → US Treasury yields fall → Conditions for bottom-fishing are met. Hartnett's three conditions essentially boil down to one: Middle East peace. And when peace will come is up to Trump and Netanyahu, not the Fed. What you need to do now isn't staring at the FOMC calendar waiting for interest rate cuts. It's watching Trump's rhetoric and news about the Strait of Hormuz. That's the real key to whether or not to buy the dip in this round of US stocks.