Parr BTC Market Daily Report - November 7th The weekend was boring with little market activity, so I didn't tweet much. I spent the day checking the charts, but decided to write a market report tonight. I. Candlestick Charts 1. Daily Chart (Chart 1) 1) Last night, the price dipped to 749 before recovering, indicating a dip, but liquidation hasn't occurred yet. The 749 level might be tested again. 2) Currently, it's the weekend, so the market seems to be boring. We need to watch whether there will be another dip and liquidation tonight. 3) The downside targets are still 746, 732, and 71-70. 2. Hourly Chart (Chart 2) The current trading range is 748-765. Watch the EQ level at 756. If it breaks below EQ and fails to hold, the probability of further downward testing of new lows is higher. If it stays above 756, the probability of testing 765 is higher. II. Data, US Stocks, Macroeconomics 1. Data 1) BTC ETF On Friday, the US stock BTC spot ETF market saw another outflow of -$412 million. BlackRock (IBIT) saw a massive -$403 million outflow (ending its rare "six-day losing streak"), accounting for 97.8% of the day's net outflow; while Fidelity (FBTC), which had just cut $200 million in losses the previous day, reversed course and became the only ETF to record a net inflow ($42.82 million) on Friday. The outflow from IBIT, a mainstay ETF, had initially shown signs of decreasing, but due to the significantly better-than-expected US October non-farm payroll data suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts, IBIT saw another massive institutional redemption of -$403 million. However, as long as IBIT continues to drain hundreds of millions of dollars daily, the market will continue to be bearish. Mainstream speculative funds: FBTC and ARKB Both of these involved buying on the 4th and selling on the 5th. The difference is that FBTC alone bought $42.82 million yesterday, indicating that swing trading funds, represented by Fidelity clients, believe the 75-76 range offers extremely high value and are taking advantage of the passive redemption wave from IBIT institutions to buy on dips. GBTC (-49.9 million), HODL (-23.63 million), and EZBC (-32.92 million), which remained stagnant for the previous three days, experienced a rare simultaneous redemption of tens of millions of dollars yesterday. This suggests that after the failed rebound to 81, existing funds on the sidelines also chose to reduce their positions on Thursday to mitigate risk. Therefore, the 80-815 range (the previous average cost line for institutions) has now completely transformed from a support level into a strong resistance zone—any price rebound into this range will face a double sell-off from IBIT investors looking to break even and momentum-driven funds (FBTC/ARKB). However, despite a massive $1.282 billion sell-off in ETFs this week, the BTC spot price didn't collapse. Instead, it held firmly above the $75-$758 support zone on Friday. Therefore, if this level holds, pay attention to potential volume-price divergence. 2) Liquidation and Liquidation Liquidation: 1D 39.11M (Long 31.66M / Short 7.44M), 12h 2.01M (Long 1.31M / Short 0.70M). The majority of liquidations in the past 24 hours were long positions. Liquidation Status: Maximum upside potential: 78700 (307.8M), 77050 (307.4M); Maximum downside potential: 74750 (342.5M), 74700 (274.7M) 2. US Stocks: US non-farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, leading the market to re-price a December rate hike; Although the semiconductor sector rebounded 4.2%, the Nasdaq still fell approximately 3.4% for the week, and the S&P 500 fell approximately 2.7%. Therefore, a single-day rebound cannot confirm the end of the AI sector's correction. The market remains divided on the return on investment in AI data centers, financing costs, and future regulations. Furthermore, the strong non-farm payrolls data further increased expectations of rate hikes, limiting the valuation recovery potential of highly valued stocks. Midterm election voting has now concluded, but the focus now shifts to the actual policy actions of the new Congress regarding AI data center approvals, fiscal spending, energy policy, crypto asset legislation, and technology regulation. Currently, market concerns about regulatory changes have already affected AI stock pricing, but policy proposals should not be considered as already enacted laws. No new formal crypto asset legislation has been confirmed to have taken effect this period. 3. Trading Recommendations I believe BTC is still relatively strong, but it's heavily reliant on US stocks. Currently, the key support levels are 749-75 (short-term neckline support) and 732 (200-day moving average and annual VWAPEQ). If the ETF continues to hold above 75, it will form a solid double-bottom divergence structure. Therefore, in the short term, we should watch whether it can recover after another attempt to break through 749 or continue to test 732. Furthermore, only when IBIT stops bleeding and the price breaks above 815 with significant volume will this round of institutional deleveraging, which began at the end of October, truly end. For more real-time information, please join our community: http://t.me/pabuerbtc