Why did the devastating midterm election defeat in the US actually become an "accelerator" for Trump to pull the trigger? He didn't even need congressional approval to bomb Iran. Everything was ready except for the final push. Why does the risk of another major war between the US, Iran, and Israel persist? Three underlying reasons: First, political necessity, a show of strength. After the midterm election defeat, the White House desperately needed a "military or diplomatic victory" to reverse public opinion. Trump's proactive disclosure of this "small-scale strike" was to demonstrate toughness and prove that the situation was still under his control. Second, the "window of opportunity" effect, acting opportunistically. The new Congress won't take office until January. His advisory team has clearly informed Trump that the "window of opportunity" for resuming large-scale military action is narrowing, advising him to act before the Democrats control Congress. The next two months represent the period with the least political resistance for him. Third, military preparations are complete, only the final push is needed. The USS Roosevelt carrier strike group is expected to arrive in late November, potentially forming a three-carrier configuration. Military resources have been significantly increased, and all objective preparations are complete. However, the overall probability of a full-scale war between the US and Iran is low. There are three reasons: (1) Strong anti-war sentiment exists within the US, with the midterm elections already sending a clear anti-war signal. (2) Strategic objectives have not been achieved. In the previous 40 days of conflict, the three objectives of overthrowing the regime, destroying Iran's strategic capabilities, and forcing negotiations were all unsuccessful. Even a large-scale war would not be enough to subdue Iran and achieve the strategic objectives. (3) The cost would be extremely high. Iran's retaliatory capability to threaten the undersea fiber optic cable in the Strait of Hormuz would be unbearable for the US and its Gulf allies. So, what is the current reality of the US-Israel-Iran conflict? The probability of a limited military strike is extremely high, and it has already occurred. On November 6, Trump confirmed that the US military conducted a "small strike" on Iran's Qeshm Island, destroying an air defense device for approximately 15 minutes. This is not an isolated incident; it's the latest in a series of limited strikes. Can Trump bypass Congress and launch a war against Iran? Yes, and he has already done so. The US Constitution grants the power to declare war to Congress, but the president, as Commander-in-Chief, has the authority to order limited military action. When Trump launched large-scale military operations previously, he didn't seek congressional authorization. At the time, Democrats accused him of "violating the Constitution," but with Republicans controlling Congress, legal challenges were futile. Now that the Democrats control both houses of Congress, has the situation changed? Yes, it has, but in the short term, it's more dangerous. After the new Congress takes office, Schumer can use the purse strings to cut off war funding. However, the Democrats won't officially take power until January 3rd next year; before then, Trump can still act freely. Advisors are urging him to take advantage of this window. More critically, with Democrats controlling Congress, any US-Iran agreement will be much harder to pass. Without congressional approval, an agreement is worthless, and Iran will not concede. The narrower the path to a diplomatic solution, the greater the weight given to military options. Therefore, I believe that: A full-scale war is unlikely, but limited strikes with "fighting while negotiating" will become the norm, and there may even be an escalation after the aircraft carrier arrives in late November. Trump can order strikes without congressional approval. His crushing defeat in the midterm elections and the impending return of the Democrats have given him an incentive to act while he still can. What the market needs to price is not a full-scale war, but a Middle East stalemate that is constantly bleeding and could escalate at any moment. For oil prices and risk assets, this state of "neither war nor peace" is more agonizing than a quick and decisive war. What will happen to global capital markets if the US and Israel launch a limited military strike against Iran? Oil prices: A short-term, impulsive surge. The threat premium in the Strait of Hormuz will be immediately realized, and Brent crude oil may jump instantly. Gold: Safe-haven funds will flow in first, causing a short-term surge in gold prices. US dollar: As the ultimate safe-haven currency, the US dollar index will strengthen in tandem. US stocks: Initial decline is expected. Overvalued tech stocks will be hit hardest, with funds temporarily shifting to energy and defense. Bitcoin: It will likely follow suit in the short term, being sold off as a risk asset. However, if the conflict drags on, its safe-haven appeal may be repriced. Remember, this is not a total war. After the initial shock, the market will reassess. But for traders, this sudden "geopolitical shakeout" is often the most devastating.