Metals Might Be Driving an Ebbing Tide The Bloomberg Commodity All Metals Total Return Subindex (BCOMAMT) rolled over from a steep premium relative to the S&P 500 (SPX) and appears at greater risk of further mean reversion. Stretched prices and rate hikes by most central banks are key headwinds for metals, and my graphic highlights that another roughly 25% decline would bring BCOMAMT and SPX back toward similar foundations as in 2022, near their 50-month moving averages. With about 30 bps of rate hikes priced as of Nov. 6, the fed funds futures one-year spread (FF13-FF1) may have to shift back toward easing before metals and SPX bottom. Plotting the metals index and SPX on the same scale shows their similar chart patterns, while BCOMAMT's annual volatility is about 2x higher. Gold and silver reverting to initial support around $4,000 and $50 an ounce may provide some underpinning, but precious metals remain near four-decade highs relative to US Treasuries. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tnx7xan3n09v {BI COMD} #copper #gold #metals #Stocks @BBGIntelligence