US Natural Gas Heading Toward $2 - Speculators Moves above $5 per million BTUs in the front US natural gas future (NG1) have resolved below $2 for roughly two decades, and hedge funds appear to expect the cycle to continue. At about 13% net-short of gas futures open interest, managed money is the most bearish for the start of November since 2019. The 2020 NG1 low was about $1.43 after peaking in November 2019 near $5. In 1Q, NG1's apex was near $7.83. What stops a normal low-price cure below $2 and sparks speculator short covering? Top prospects are a third consecutive colder-than-normal winter or something similar to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when NG1 surged to near $10. The 2024 low was about $1.48. Well-supplied US natural gas is a prime example of a highly autocorrelated commodity: Prices go down because they went up and incentivized more supply. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tnvhbekiupsc {BI COMD} #naturalgas #futures @BBGIntelligence