飞凡
飞凡|11月 06, 2026 18:59
Here's a different perspective: Trump's election defeat is actually beneficial for pushing forward the next round of fiscal expansion in the United States. This is related to the negotiation mechanism in Congress. When the two parties in the US are checking and balancing each other on fiscal issues, especially when both sides hold political leverage that the other cannot circumvent, they generally compromise by increasing fiscal spending. The Democrats are preparing to push for the restoration of some healthcare spending and adjustments to tariff policies, while Trump needs to maintain defense spending and economic growth to give the Republicans political leverage in the 2028 election. Furthermore, the Democrats now have stronger fiscal negotiating leverage, able to exchange the budget and debt ceiling for fiscal policies such as healthcare and housing subsidies. The current power dynamics on both sides are roughly equal. Trump needs to maintain the economy, while the Democrats need to fulfill their campaign promises. Therefore, at some point, they will inevitably reach a budget agreement by exchanging fiscal policies, and ultimately, this will lead to a deficit higher than market expectations.
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